Jul 27 '26, 6:45 PM in 8h

MLB | Blue Jays vs Nationals

Play on: Nationals -125 at betonline

Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer has 222 career victories. He may not get another one.

Scherzer, who turned 42 today, is set to make his first big league start since June 10 having dealt with back and thumb issues since then.

The three-time Cy Young Award winner is 1-4 this season with a 10.23 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and has only 14 strikeouts in 22 innings.

So, yes, sadly I would say Scherzer is washed up. The Nationals are just the team to put an exclamation point to that.

Washington leads the majors in runs, homers, steals and OPS. CJ Abrams is first in RBI's and James Wood is fifth in homers with 30 of which 20 have come at home.

The Nationals are two games above .500. The Blue Jays have been a major disappointment with a 48-58 record. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit only six home runs and Toronto is the lowest scoring team in the league averaging 3.9 runs per game.

So this isn't a high bar for Andrew Alvarez, who has been the Nationals' second or third best pitcher. Alvarez has a 4.22 ERA, but has better metrics than what his ERA is. He is averaging 9.3 strikeouts and 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings.

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Jul 26 '26, 1:40 PM in 2h

MLB | Dodgers vs Mets

Play on: Mets +142 at Draft Kings

The Mets qualify as the only 8-or-more Luck Gap play on Sunday’s card. TeamRankings rates Los Angeles at +0.30 and New York at -10.31, producing a massive 10.61-game gap. Under the system, the substantially unluckier team is the wager, making New York the clear contrarian value side.

Emmet Sheehan is difficult to justify at this price. The Dodgers right-hander is 4-7 with a 5.13 ERA, and Los Angeles has lost seven of his last nine starts. He was hammered for six earned runs, eight hits and two home runs in 5⅓ innings against Philadelphia his last time out. Sheehan has surrendered 17 home runs in 87⅔ innings, with a concerning 10.3% barrel rate, creating legitimate damage potential for a Mets lineup containing Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., Marcus Semien and Francisco Alvarez. 

Sheehan’s underlying metrics are better than his ERA, but not dominant enough to justify laying approximately -156 on the road. FanGraphs lists him with a 4.50 FIP, while Statcast has allowed a .338 wOBA and an 89.4 mph average exit velocity. He has completed six innings only once in his last nine starts, which increases the likelihood that the Mets get multiple looks at the Los Angeles bullpen. 

Freddy Peralta’s surface form is admittedly poor, but his advanced indicators make him a viable positive-regression candidate. Despite a 5.01 ERA, Peralta owns a 3.85 FIP and has allowed a .303 expected wOBA, compared with his actual .342 wOBA. His 87.8 mph average exit velocity and 5.4% barrel rate are both better than Sheehan’s corresponding contact numbers. That substantial ERA-to-FIP and wOBA-to-xwOBA separation indicates Peralta has pitched better than his results suggest. 

This is also a classic getaway-game situational spot. The Dodgers are completing a nine-game road trip, have already secured the series and enter on a four-game winning streak. New York has lost the first two games by competitive 4-2 and 4-3 scores, including Saturday’s game in which the Mets put 10 runners on base but went only 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position. A modest improvement in situational hitting could reverse the result against the weakest Dodgers starter used in the series. 

Juan Soto’s absence is a significant negative, and Peralta cannot be trusted blindly after allowing seven runs in Milwaukee. However, those concerns are fully reflected in a generous home-underdog price. The pitching matchup is much closer than the respective team records suggest, Peralta owns the stronger underlying contact profile, and the 10.61 Luck Gap supplies the primary systematic edge.

The value is NEW YORK METS.

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Jul 25 '26, 6:40 PM in 8h

MLB | Cubs vs Pirates

Play on: Cubs +122 at Ace

Marc David Sports' Free Pick

We really like the road underdog in this matchup. The betting line appears to be heavily inflated due to the public reputation of Pittsburgh's starter, but expecting the Pirates to justify a steep premium on their home dirt is a massive market overreaction. White Pittsburgh RHP Paul Skenes (9-8, 3.43 ERA) commands immense market respect and carries strong individual metrics, Pittsburgh has routinely failed to convert his outings into betting value, stumbling to a sluggish 9-12 team record and generating a substantial negative ROI in his starts this season. 

Cubs LHP Shota Imanaga (6-8, 3.91 ERA) enters this contest in electric form. Over his last three starts, Imanaga has completely locked down opposing orders, surrendering just three earned runs while racking up 17 strikeouts across 16.2 innings of work. Imanaga holds absolute mastery over this specific opponent; across five career appearances against the Pirates, he boasts a 2-0 record alongside a microscopic 0.28 ERA.

This is a FREE PLAY on the CUBS!

Released o

Jul 25 '26, 6:10 PM in 7h

MLB | Guardians vs Rays

Play on: Rays -130 at betonline

Ricky's 1* play on TB.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Tampa Bay are 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.

- Cleveland are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.

- Cleveland are 3-7 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the American League.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

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