Pro Picks (Rise of the Chalk Donkey This Week)

Monster Play — 5 units

Saints -3.5 vs. Raiders
First home game of the year in the Superdome and 20 anniversary game after Katrina hurricane

High Plays — 2 units

Panthers -2.5 at Browns
Carolina is the sharper 1-1 team and should control a modest road favorite against a still-limited Cleveland offense.

Lions -6.5 vs. Jets
Detroit at Ford Field is a mismatch in tempo and scoring, and -6.5 is a fair price against a Jets team that has not shown it can hang in a track meet.

Seahawks -8.5 at Commanders
Seattle is 2-0 with Sam Darnold back, while Washington is 0-2 and without Jayden Daniels, which is too big a talent gap even on the road.

Vikings -1.5 at Buccaneers
Minnesota is 2-0 and should handle a 0-2 Tampa Bay team that has not found any consistency on either side of the ball.

Cowboys +3.5 vs. Ravens (Rio)
Dallas as a short underdog in a neutral-site game is the value side if this stays close and the Ravens do not pull away early.

Medium Plays — 1 unit

Bengals -3.5 at Steelers
Cincinnati is 2-0 and the better offensive team in a rivalry game that should not require a huge number to cover.

Eagles -3.5 at Bears (Monday)
Philadelphia is 2-0 and should travel as the more complete team against a Bears club still finding its footing.

Broncos +2.5 vs. Rams
Denver at altitude is a live dog against a 1-1 Rams team that has not earned more than a field-goal favorite number.

Texans -1.5 at Colts
Houston is the more functional 0-2 team and should be able to win a low-scoring, one-score game in Indianapolis.

Jaguars -3 vs. Patriots
Jacksonville at home is a small favorite for a reason and should be able to grind out a short-number cover against New England.

Low Plays — 0.5 units

Cardinals +7.5 at 49ers
San Francisco is the better team, but +7.5 is a lot of points if Arizona can keep this from turning into a blowout.

Giants -2.5 vs. Titans
New York is at home against 0-2 Tennessee and should still be good enough to cover even with Jameis Winston starting.

Chiefs -10 at Dolphins
Kansas City is 2-0, Miami is 0-2, and this is the one double-digit favorite on the board that actually looks like a mismatch

This HC for USC LOST his J-O-B last night!

It's UFC Time!  

Top 5 plays

1. Rinya Nakamura by decision (~+175) — Hiestand is durable and coming off a long layoff, so Nakamura should win the wrestling and minutes without needing a finish.

2. John Castaneda by decision (−165) — Pace and reach should stack rounds if Alatengheili survives the pressure.

3. Montel Jackson by KO/TKO (+240/+250) — Simon has to walk into range to wrestle; Jackson’s left hand is the cleanest finish path.

4. Luis Hernandez ML (−245) — Size and pressure against a Dumas who fades.

5. Ailin Perez ML (−150/−155) — Takedowns and control should decide it in the Apex.

Two long shots

• Mehemmedeli Osmanli by submission (+390) — Akylbek wants to wrestle into Osmanli’s submission game; that is a dangerous entry.

• Raoni Barcelos by submission (+1200) — Rosas shoots constantly; one bad scramble is enough.

Friday HALFTIME wager on TEMPLE!  Army looks like CRAP or not ready to play the game!

Santa Anita Friday: Race 1: #4 RULER #5

Race 2: #6 MAGIC-DEBUT PONY, #5

Race 3: #3,#5,#1

Race 4 #2, #6

Race 5#5 Luna, #7

Race 6: #2,#6

Race 7: #6,#2

Race 8: #1 GOLDEN, #6 Both Debut Ponies!

High Tier (2u)

LSU -9.5 (-115) vs Texas A&M
Both just lost. A&M already folded as a home favorite. Death Valley does the rest. Two scores in the fourth is the whole bet.

Tennessee +4.5 (-105) vs Texas
Opened Texas -6.5. Now this. Neyland plus four and a half is how you bet a No. 1 that still looks mortal.

Medium (1u)
Iowa +5.5 (-110) at Michigan
Total 38.5. Michigan “wins.” Iowa makes it a root canal and still cashes.

Oregon -3 (-110) at USC
Line slid off them. Roster didn’t. If they play like August said they would, a field goal is enough.

Stanford +3.5 (-115) vs Georgia Tech
Late home dog. Tech leaves points in Palo Alto. You wake up to 17-16.

Low (0.5u)
Ole Miss +3.5 (-115) at Florida
Public side. Still a 3-0 SEC team that can lose by 3 and eat.

California +1.5 (-110) vs Clemson
Friday 10:30 PT. If Clemson packed the wrong helmets, +1.5 is free.

Lehigh -11.5 (-122) at Penn
No sharp market. Lehigh’s a steamroller. Penn is hosting hope. Hope isn’t a run defense.

Belmont Friday: Race 1 #4 CLAIM-DEBUT PONY, #2

Race 2: #4 Nitrogen; SINGLE

Race 3: #6,#9, both debut ponies, #1

Race 4: #1 Concurrently, #4

Race 5: #7,#3,#1

Race 6: #8,#4,#11

Race 7: #3,#1 Both Debut Ponies, #8,#12

Race 8: #7,#1,#11

Race 9: #3,#2,#7

Lots of DEBUT ponies on the CARD........We frequently hit these ponies!