College Football play for me is Lehigh vs Fordham Over 44.5 points. Lehigh has been an ATM last year and this year.
Kenneth P.
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Fight Night. No Mercy - UFC 332
Eric Nolan KO, R1–R2 vs. Court McGee (+120 to +144)
McGee is fighting like a man who already updated his LinkedIn, and Nolan is the goodbye party.
Ismail Naurdiev by decision vs. Marvin Vettori (+180)
Two middleweights who treat the cage like a waiting room. Somebody wins on a card that looks like a tax form.
Alexander Hernandez by decision vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+185 to +210)
RDA is not getting slept. Hernandez just jabs him into a three-round performance review.
Jacobe Smith KO, R1 vs. Bruce Whitehead (−290 KO)
This is not a fight. This is Whitehead meeting the end of the undercard.
Johnny Walker by decision vs. Mick Parkin (+270 to +370)
Walker forgets to throw the stupid one, Parkin refuses to fall over, and everyone is annoyed for 15 minutes.
Anthony Wint KO, R1 vs. Lucas Armand (heavy chalk)
Two undefeated heavyweights. One of them has already deleted people in under a minute. Guess which.
Damian Pinas KO, R2 vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Pinas −480 ML)
Round 1 is the feeling-out round. Round 2 is the “oh.”
Alden Coria by decision vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Coria +117 to +135 ML)
Flyweights doing flyweight things: nobody finishes, somebody’s hand gets raised, the crowd checks its phone.
Roman Kopylov by decision vs. Ateba Gautier (Kopylov +160 to +175)
Gautier is supposed to delete him. Kopylov survives the trailer and wins the movie.
Roberto Soldic KO, R1 vs. Khaos Williams (+190 R1)
Khaos Williams and a KSW killer who finishes people for a living. This does not need a second round.
King Green by decision vs. Esteban Ribovics (Green +185 to +205)
Ribovics is the finisher. Green is the 40-year-old who wins ugly and makes the parlay weird.
Payton Talbott sub, R3 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (long)
Figueiredo’s wrestling dies, Talbott finds a neck in the third, and the one-sub-win guy becomes a problem. Or this is the dumbest leg on the sheet.
Natalia Silva by submission vs. Wang Cong (longer than the +600 KO)
The market says decision. The bedtime sheet says she snatches the neck and the vacant belt in one motion. Title fights love a bad idea.
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Pro Picks (Rise of the Chalk Donkey This Week)
Monster Play — 5 units
Saints -3.5 vs. Raiders
First home game of the year in the Superdome and 20 anniversary game after Katrina hurricane
High Plays — 2 units
Panthers -2.5 at Browns
Carolina is the sharper 1-1 team and should control a modest road favorite against a still-limited Cleveland offense.
Lions -6.5 vs. Jets
Detroit at Ford Field is a mismatch in tempo and scoring, and -6.5 is a fair price against a Jets team that has not shown it can hang in a track meet.
Seahawks -8.5 at Commanders
Seattle is 2-0 with Sam Darnold back, while Washington is 0-2 and without Jayden Daniels, which is too big a talent gap even on the road.
Vikings -1.5 at Buccaneers
Minnesota is 2-0 and should handle a 0-2 Tampa Bay team that has not found any consistency on either side of the ball.
Cowboys +3.5 vs. Ravens (Rio)
Dallas as a short underdog in a neutral-site game is the value side if this stays close and the Ravens do not pull away early.
Medium Plays — 1 unit
Bengals -3.5 at Steelers
Cincinnati is 2-0 and the better offensive team in a rivalry game that should not require a huge number to cover.
Eagles -3.5 at Bears (Monday)
Philadelphia is 2-0 and should travel as the more complete team against a Bears club still finding its footing.
Broncos +2.5 vs. Rams
Denver at altitude is a live dog against a 1-1 Rams team that has not earned more than a field-goal favorite number.
Texans -1.5 at Colts
Houston is the more functional 0-2 team and should be able to win a low-scoring, one-score game in Indianapolis.
Jaguars -3 vs. Patriots
Jacksonville at home is a small favorite for a reason and should be able to grind out a short-number cover against New England.
Low Plays — 0.5 units
Cardinals +7.5 at 49ers
San Francisco is the better team, but +7.5 is a lot of points if Arizona can keep this from turning into a blowout.
Giants -2.5 vs. Titans
New York is at home against 0-2 Tennessee and should still be good enough to cover even with Jameis Winston starting.
Chiefs -10 at Dolphins
Kansas City is 2-0, Miami is 0-2, and this is the one double-digit favorite on the board that actually looks like a mismatch
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It's UFC Time!
Top 5 plays
Rinya Nakamura by decision (~+175) — Hiestand is durable and coming off a long layoff, so Nakamura should win the wrestling and minutes without needing a finish.
John Castaneda by decision (−165) — Pace and reach should stack rounds if Alatengheili survives the pressure.
Montel Jackson by KO/TKO (+240/+250) — Simon has to walk into range to wrestle; Jackson’s left hand is the cleanest finish path.
Luis Hernandez ML (−245) — Size and pressure against a Dumas who fades.
Ailin Perez ML (−150/−155) — Takedowns and control should decide it in the Apex.
Two long shots
Mehemmedeli Osmanli by submission (+390) — Akylbek wants to wrestle into Osmanli’s submission game; that is a dangerous entry.
Raoni Barcelos by submission (+1200) — Rosas shoots constantly; one bad scramble is enough.
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High Tier (2u)
LSU -9.5 (-115) vs Texas A&M
Both just lost. A&M already folded as a home favorite. Death Valley does the rest. Two scores in the fourth is the whole bet.
Tennessee +4.5 (-105) vs Texas
Opened Texas -6.5. Now this. Neyland plus four and a half is how you bet a No. 1 that still looks mortal.
Medium (1u)
Iowa +5.5 (-110) at Michigan
Total 38.5. Michigan “wins.” Iowa makes it a root canal and still cashes.
Oregon -3 (-110) at USC
Line slid off them. Roster didn’t. If they play like August said they would, a field goal is enough.
Stanford +3.5 (-115) vs Georgia Tech
Late home dog. Tech leaves points in Palo Alto. You wake up to 17-16.
Low (0.5u)
Ole Miss +3.5 (-115) at Florida
Public side. Still a 3-0 SEC team that can lose by 3 and eat.
California +1.5 (-110) vs Clemson
Friday 10:30 PT. If Clemson packed the wrong helmets, +1.5 is free.
Lehigh -11.5 (-122) at Penn
No sharp market. Lehigh’s a steamroller. Penn is hosting hope. Hope isn’t a run defense.
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Don't be a Chalk Donkey and take some point.
High Tier (2 units)
Saints +8.5 at Ravens — Baltimore is missing Zay Flowers and other pieces, so a full touchdown-plus is too many points against a Saints offense that can still steal a half and keep this inside a score.
Eagles -7 at Titans — Philadelphia is the clearly better roster on the road in extreme Nashville heat, and a one-score win still covers if they lean on Saquon and sit on the lead.
Steelers +5.5 at Patriots — Pittsburgh’s defense travels, New England is coming off a sloppy opener, and 5.5 is extra points in a low-total game that often dies in the 20s.
Giants +7 at Rams (Monday) — You listed this twice; treat it as one 2-unit play on Monday. Jaxson Dart/Cam Skattebo give New York a live underdog script, and 7 points is the number you want when L.A. is still figuring out its identity.
Broncos -2.5 vs Jaguars — Denver at altitude as a small home favorite is the side you want after Jacksonville’s Week 1 explosion, especially if this turns into a field-position game.
Seahawks -3.5/-4 at Cardinals — Even with Drew Lock starting, Seattle is the more physical team and models still project them to cover a field goal in Arizona.
Medium Tier (1 unit)
Buccaneers -8/-8.5 vs Browns — Cleveland looked broken in Week 1 and Baker gets a revenge spot at home; Tampa should win by more than a touchdown if the Browns’ offensive line holds up like last week.
Panthers -2.5 at Falcons — Atlanta is on Cooper Rush again with Penix out and Tua doubtful, so Carolina is the more functional offense in a short-number road favorite spot.
Cowboys -4/-4.5 vs Commanders — Dallas at home in a 50-point total should control the ground game with Javonte and make Washington chase; 4 is a fair number against a Commanders team that already showed holes.
Chiefs -6/-6.5 vs Colts — Patrick Mahomes at home in primetime is still the safest favorite on the night, and Indianapolis has too many questions to hang for a full 60 minutes.
Bengals +2.5 at Texans — Houston is without Nico Collins and a starting guard, Joe Burrow is expected to play, and 2.5 is cheap insurance in a game Cincinnati can win outright.
Low Tier (0.5 unit)
Jets +3.5 vs Packers — Green Bay is better, but 3.5 on a home dog with Geno is playable if the Jets keep it in the mud and steal a late score.
Vikings +4.5 at Bears — Carson Wentz already won in relief last week; Soldier Field wind/rain can flatten Chicago’s explosive edge and make 4.5 live.
Raiders +6.5 at Chargers — Las Vegas is thin with Bowers doubtful, but 6.5 on the road dog is the classic “don’t lay a touchdown” number if the Chargers stall in the red zone.
Dolphins +13.5 at 49ers — This is a buy-points play only: San Francisco should win big, but 13.5 is a lot of points if Miami keeps it from becoming a 28-point blowout.
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Are you not Entertained? Violence Saturday and college picks.
UFC 331 Picks
Alexandre Pantoja (+120) - The first one ended in 26 seconds and an injury. This one should last long enough for the former champ to remind everyone that “interim chaos” is not the same thing as beating him for five rounds.
Dooho Choi (-120) - Pitbull’s résumé is legendary. His chin is on a timeshare.
Casey O'Neill Decision (+100) - O’Neill is the better wrestler-boxer in a fight that books love to keep standing just long enough to go to the scorecards.
Edmen Shahbazyan (-190) - Home fight in L.A., power in both hands, and an opponent who has to survive the first six minutes
College Football Play
LSU (-3) - LSU is built to win and Kiffin owns real estate in everyone's head.
Lehigh (-16.5) - The Mountain Hawks are 3-0, scoring like they have a personal vendetta against defensive coordinators, and Dartmouth is walking into Family Weekend in Bethlehem. FCS spreads this big still cash when one side is a buzzsaw and the other is still finding its pads.
North Carolina ML - Clemson is starting a freshmen QB and struggled against Georgia Southern.
Alabama (19.5) - Bryant-Denny in Week 3 against a Seminoles team that is not built to survive a 60-minute track meet. Nineteen and a half is a lot until you remember Alabama can score that in one quarter and still look annoyed.
Only for degenerates to play for massive payday
1.) Tuivasa (+410) granite chin, one-punch power, and far greater UFC experience give him a real chance to survive Despaigne’s early kicks and land a fight-ending right hand in a sloppy heavyweight brawl. Just ignore his 7 fight losing streak.
2.) Gable Steveson submission (+500) - He is a -2000 Olympic wrestler against a guy the market priced like a sparring partner. Gable has been working on his submissions in camp and great value here to play versus KO prop.
3.) Giga Chikadze decision (+700) - Brito wants a street fight. Giga wants a kickboxing exhibition that goes 15 minutes and makes judges do math. You are betting that the Georgian’s calves last longer than the Brazilian’s patience.
4.) Michael Aswell decision (+300) - Plus-money on a dog to win ugly and stay upright. If this cashes, nobody at the sportsbook will congratulate you. They will just ask who hurt you.
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Ready for Football - Here are my NFL picks after a day of UFC and boxing violence. Did the whole card.
High Tier Play (2 units)
Dallas −2.5 (1H) vs Giants — Dallas should control the first half on SNF
Chicago −3 at Carolina — the Bears are the better roster on the road
Bengals −2.5 (1H) vs Tampa Bay — Cincinnati’s home opener against a Bucs team that travels poorly is built to get out in front early.
Mid Tier Plays (1 unit)
Vikings −2.5 vs Green Bay — Minnesota at home in a rivalry game is a small number against a Packers side that still has to prove the new year on the road.
Steelers −6 vs Atlanta — Pittsburgh at home should handle a Falcons team that has not shown it can hang in a physical AFC North environment.
Saints +7 at Detroit — Detroit is the better team, but a touchdown is a lot to lay in Week 1 when New Orleans can keep it in one-score range.
Cardinals +9.5 at Chargers — that is too many points on the road in September against a Chargers team that still leaves games on the table.
Eagles −6 vs Washington — Philadelphia at home should separate from Washington without needing a blowout.
Low Tier Plays (0.5 unit)
Denver ML at Kansas City — if Mahomes is still working back, the Broncos are live to steal Monday night outright.
Browns +8.5 at Jacksonville — Jacksonville is the better side, but a field goal and a half is plenty of cushion for a messy Week 1 road dog.
Tennessee ML vs Jets — home Titans as a short favorite is the cleaner side of a low-total game against the Jets.
Texans ML vs Buffalo — Houston at home in a near-pick’em is worth the extra juice if Buffalo’s first road trip is sloppy.
Miami ML at Las Vegas — the Dolphins are getting plus money on the road against a Raiders team that is only a field-goal favorite.
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Ready for Violence today here are my UFC and college picks.
UFC Noche Picks
Sean King (-218) - He’s 6-0 with a wrestling base, a three-fight finishing streak, and a size edge at 6'0" against Jessie Rosas, who is jumping up from bantamweight for his own UFC debut.
Curtis Blayes (+180) - His elite heavyweight wrestling is still the cleanest path to control Waldo Cortes-Acosta’s boxing, and +180 is fat value on a veteran who just went to war rather than a fighter who has suddenly fallen off.
Tommy McMillen (-142) - His UFC-record striking volume, cardio, and chin should survive Rahiki’s early power and then drown the 9-0 knockout artist as the fight goes past the first round.
College Football Play
Lehigh (-12.5) - Run game should dominate.
Oregon 1st Quarter (-6.5) - Rebound from last week's performance.
Clemson 1st Quarter (-5.5) - Rebound from last week's performance.
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