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Top 5 plays
Rinya Nakamura by decision (~+175) — Hiestand is durable and coming off a long layoff, so Nakamura should win the wrestling and minutes without needing a finish.
John Castaneda by decision (−165) — Pace and reach should stack rounds if Alatengheili survives the pressure.
Montel Jackson by KO/TKO (+240/+250) — Simon has to walk into range to wrestle; Jackson’s left hand is the cleanest finish path.
Luis Hernandez ML (−245) — Size and pressure against a Dumas who fades.
Ailin Perez ML (−150/−155) — Takedowns and control should decide it in the Apex.
Two long shots
Mehemmedeli Osmanli by submission (+390) — Akylbek wants to wrestle into Osmanli’s submission game; that is a dangerous entry.
Raoni Barcelos by submission (+1200) — Rosas shoots constantly; one bad scramble is enough.