an 23 '26, 1:00 PM in 1h

NCAA-B | East Carolina vs North Texas

Play on: North Texas -10 -110 at Buckeye

Game Analysis

1* Free Pick on North Texas -10

North Texas is a brick wall at home and remains one of the toughest outs in the American Athletic Conference. They rank near the top of the country in defensive efficiency and force every opponent to play at a snail's pace.

East Carolina is not built to win a grind-out game in a hostile environment like the Super Pit. The Pirates struggle with half-court execution and rely on transition points that simply won't be there today.

North Texas is elite at taking away the three-point line. They rank in the top 25 nationally in opponent three-point percentage and force teams into contested mid-range jumpers.

The Pirates depend on high-volume scoring from their backcourt, but the Mean Green have the perimeter length to lock them down. North Texas also dominates the defensive glass and limits teams to one shot per possession.

They rarely give up second-chance opportunities, which is the only way a team like East Carolina stays competitive in a road spot like this. The Mean Green are well-rested and haven't had to leave Denton all week.

Meanwhile, the Pirates are dealing with a quick turnaround and the fatigue of travel. That tired energy usually shows up in the second half when legs get heavy and jump shots start hitting the front of the rim.

North Texas has been a covering machine at home against teams with a losing road record. They are a disciplined group that doesn't beat themselves with sloppy turnovers or cheap fouls.

They will eventually wear the Pirates down and stretch this lead out at the free-throw line late. The defensive gap between these two programs is the biggest factor on the board today.

Expect the Mean Green to keep the Pirates under 60 points and dictate every aspect of the tempo. When a team can't find easy buckets, they can't cover a double-digit spread on the road.

I like the North Texas -10 (-110)