Don't be a Chalk Donkey and take some point.  

High Tier (2 units)

• Saints +8.5 at Ravens — Baltimore is missing Zay Flowers and other pieces, so a full touchdown-plus is too many points against a Saints offense that can still steal a half and keep this inside a score.

• Eagles -7 at Titans — Philadelphia is the clearly better roster on the road in extreme Nashville heat, and a one-score win still covers if they lean on Saquon and sit on the lead.

• Steelers +5.5 at Patriots — Pittsburgh’s defense travels, New England is coming off a sloppy opener, and 5.5 is extra points in a low-total game that often dies in the 20s.

• Giants +7 at Rams (Monday) — You listed this twice; treat it as one 2-unit play on Monday. Jaxson Dart/Cam Skattebo give New York a live underdog script, and 7 points is the number you want when L.A. is still figuring out its identity.

• Broncos -2.5 vs Jaguars — Denver at altitude as a small home favorite is the side you want after Jacksonville’s Week 1 explosion, especially if this turns into a field-position game.

• Seahawks -3.5/-4 at Cardinals — Even with Drew Lock starting, Seattle is the more physical team and models still project them to cover a field goal in Arizona.

Medium Tier (1 unit)

• Buccaneers -8/-8.5 vs Browns — Cleveland looked broken in Week 1 and Baker gets a revenge spot at home; Tampa should win by more than a touchdown if the Browns’ offensive line holds up like last week.

• Panthers -2.5 at Falcons — Atlanta is on Cooper Rush again with Penix out and Tua doubtful, so Carolina is the more functional offense in a short-number road favorite spot.

• Cowboys -4/-4.5 vs Commanders — Dallas at home in a 50-point total should control the ground game with Javonte and make Washington chase; 4 is a fair number against a Commanders team that already showed holes.

• Chiefs -6/-6.5 vs Colts — Patrick Mahomes at home in primetime is still the safest favorite on the night, and Indianapolis has too many questions to hang for a full 60 minutes.

• Bengals +2.5 at Texans — Houston is without Nico Collins and a starting guard, Joe Burrow is expected to play, and 2.5 is cheap insurance in a game Cincinnati can win outright.

Low Tier (0.5 unit)

• Jets +3.5 vs Packers — Green Bay is better, but 3.5 on a home dog with Geno is playable if the Jets keep it in the mud and steal a late score.

• Vikings +4.5 at Bears — Carson Wentz already won in relief last week; Soldier Field wind/rain can flatten Chicago’s explosive edge and make 4.5 live.

• Raiders +6.5 at Chargers — Las Vegas is thin with Bowers doubtful, but 6.5 on the road dog is the classic “don’t lay a touchdown” number if the Chargers stall in the red zone.

• Dolphins +13.5 at 49ers — This is a buy-points play only: San Francisco should win big, but 13.5 is a lot of points if Miami keeps it from becoming a 28-point blowout.

Well... I'm at a loss at this point... literally

BELMONT SAUTDAY: 5TH RACE: #8 TITAN, #5

RACE 6: #10 CAPTAIN, #12

RACE 7: #3,#1

RACE 8: FORMFUL #1, #6

RACE 9: #7,10,11

RACE 10: #10,#4,#2

https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/team-stats?category=turnovers&sort=to

Are you not Entertained?  Violence Saturday and college picks.

UFC 331 Picks

Alexandre Pantoja (+120) - The first one ended in 26 seconds and an injury. This one should last long enough for the former champ to remind everyone that “interim chaos” is not the same thing as beating him for five rounds.

Dooho Choi (-120) - Pitbull’s résumé is legendary. His chin is on a timeshare.

Casey O'Neill Decision (+100) - O’Neill is the better wrestler-boxer in a fight that books love to keep standing just long enough to go to the scorecards.

Edmen Shahbazyan (-190) - Home fight in L.A., power in both hands, and an opponent who has to survive the first six minutes

College Football Play

LSU (-3) - LSU is built to win and Kiffin owns real estate in everyone's head.

Lehigh (-16.5) - The Mountain Hawks are 3-0, scoring like they have a personal vendetta against defensive coordinators, and Dartmouth is walking into Family Weekend in Bethlehem. FCS spreads this big still cash when one side is a buzzsaw and the other is still finding its pads.

North Carolina ML - Clemson is starting a freshmen QB and struggled against Georgia Southern.

Alabama (19.5) - Bryant-Denny in Week 3 against a Seminoles team that is not built to survive a 60-minute track meet. Nineteen and a half is a lot until you remember Alabama can score that in one quarter and still look annoyed.

Only for degenerates to play for massive payday

1.) Tuivasa (+410) granite chin, one-punch power, and far greater UFC experience give him a real chance to survive Despaigne’s early kicks and land a fight-ending right hand in a sloppy heavyweight brawl. Just ignore his 7 fight losing streak.

2.) Gable Steveson submission (+500) - He is a -2000 Olympic wrestler against a guy the market priced like a sparring partner. Gable has been working on his submissions in camp and great value here to play versus KO prop.

3.) Giga Chikadze decision (+700) - Brito wants a street fight. Giga wants a kickboxing exhibition that goes 15 minutes and makes judges do math. You are betting that the Georgian’s calves last longer than the Brazilian’s patience.

4.) Michael Aswell decision (+300) - Plus-money on a dog to win ugly and stay upright. If this cashes, nobody at the sportsbook will congratulate you. They will just ask who hurt you.

Friday Belmont: Race 6: #12 Mitz, #13 Straight, #10, #5

Race 7: #3 Grand DEBUT Pony, #11, #6

Race 8: #1,#8,#4,#10

Race 9:#6 Maria Most Probable Winner of the day. #1

I don't think I can handle the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl this year........

Ready for Football - Here are my NFL picks after a day of UFC and boxing violence.  Did the whole card.  

High Tier Play (2 units)
Dallas −2.5 (1H) vs Giants — Dallas should control the first half on SNF
Chicago −3 at Carolina — the Bears are the better roster on the road
Bengals −2.5 (1H) vs Tampa Bay — Cincinnati’s home opener against a Bucs team that travels poorly is built to get out in front early.

Mid Tier Plays (1 unit)
Vikings −2.5 vs Green Bay — Minnesota at home in a rivalry game is a small number against a Packers side that still has to prove the new year on the road.
Steelers −6 vs Atlanta — Pittsburgh at home should handle a Falcons team that has not shown it can hang in a physical AFC North environment.
Saints +7 at Detroit — Detroit is the better team, but a touchdown is a lot to lay in Week 1 when New Orleans can keep it in one-score range.
Cardinals +9.5 at Chargers — that is too many points on the road in September against a Chargers team that still leaves games on the table.
Eagles −6 vs Washington — Philadelphia at home should separate from Washington without needing a blowout.

Low Tier Plays (0.5 unit)
Denver ML at Kansas City — if Mahomes is still working back, the Broncos are live to steal Monday night outright.
Browns +8.5 at Jacksonville — Jacksonville is the better side, but a field goal and a half is plenty of cushion for a messy Week 1 road dog.
Tennessee ML vs Jets — home Titans as a short favorite is the cleaner side of a low-total game against the Jets.
Texans ML vs Buffalo — Houston at home in a near-pick’em is worth the extra juice if Buffalo’s first road trip is sloppy.
Miami ML at Las Vegas — the Dolphins are getting plus money on the road against a Raiders team that is only a field-goal favorite.