College Football play for me is Lehigh vs Fordham Over 44.5 points.    Lehigh has been an ATM last year and this year.     

Fight Night.   No Mercy  - UFC 332

Eric Nolan KO, R1–R2 vs. Court McGee (+120 to +144)
McGee is fighting like a man who already updated his LinkedIn, and Nolan is the goodbye party.

Ismail Naurdiev by decision vs. Marvin Vettori (+180)
Two middleweights who treat the cage like a waiting room. Somebody wins on a card that looks like a tax form.

Alexander Hernandez by decision vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+185 to +210)
RDA is not getting slept. Hernandez just jabs him into a three-round performance review.

Jacobe Smith KO, R1 vs. Bruce Whitehead (−290 KO)
This is not a fight. This is Whitehead meeting the end of the undercard.

Johnny Walker by decision vs. Mick Parkin (+270 to +370)
Walker forgets to throw the stupid one, Parkin refuses to fall over, and everyone is annoyed for 15 minutes.

Anthony Wint KO, R1 vs. Lucas Armand (heavy chalk)
Two undefeated heavyweights. One of them has already deleted people in under a minute. Guess which.

Damian Pinas KO, R2 vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Pinas −480 ML)
Round 1 is the feeling-out round. Round 2 is the “oh.”

Alden Coria by decision vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Coria +117 to +135 ML)
Flyweights doing flyweight things: nobody finishes, somebody’s hand gets raised, the crowd checks its phone.

Roman Kopylov by decision vs. Ateba Gautier (Kopylov +160 to +175)
Gautier is supposed to delete him. Kopylov survives the trailer and wins the movie.

Roberto Soldic KO, R1 vs. Khaos Williams (+190 R1)
Khaos Williams and a KSW killer who finishes people for a living. This does not need a second round.

King Green by decision vs. Esteban Ribovics (Green +185 to +205)
Ribovics is the finisher. Green is the 40-year-old who wins ugly and makes the parlay weird.

Payton Talbott sub, R3 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (long)
Figueiredo’s wrestling dies, Talbott finds a neck in the third, and the one-sub-win guy becomes a problem. Or this is the dumbest leg on the sheet.

Natalia Silva by submission vs. Wang Cong (longer than the +600 KO)
The market says decision. The bedtime sheet says she snatches the neck and the vacant belt in one motion. Title fights love a bad idea.

Pro Picks (Rise of the Chalk Donkey This Week)

Monster Play — 5 units

Saints -3.5 vs. Raiders
First home game of the year in the Superdome and 20 anniversary game after Katrina hurricane

High Plays — 2 units

Panthers -2.5 at Browns
Carolina is the sharper 1-1 team and should control a modest road favorite against a still-limited Cleveland offense.

Lions -6.5 vs. Jets
Detroit at Ford Field is a mismatch in tempo and scoring, and -6.5 is a fair price against a Jets team that has not shown it can hang in a track meet.

Seahawks -8.5 at Commanders
Seattle is 2-0 with Sam Darnold back, while Washington is 0-2 and without Jayden Daniels, which is too big a talent gap even on the road.

Vikings -1.5 at Buccaneers
Minnesota is 2-0 and should handle a 0-2 Tampa Bay team that has not found any consistency on either side of the ball.

Cowboys +3.5 vs. Ravens (Rio)
Dallas as a short underdog in a neutral-site game is the value side if this stays close and the Ravens do not pull away early.

Medium Plays — 1 unit

Bengals -3.5 at Steelers
Cincinnati is 2-0 and the better offensive team in a rivalry game that should not require a huge number to cover.

Eagles -3.5 at Bears (Monday)
Philadelphia is 2-0 and should travel as the more complete team against a Bears club still finding its footing.

Broncos +2.5 vs. Rams
Denver at altitude is a live dog against a 1-1 Rams team that has not earned more than a field-goal favorite number.

Texans -1.5 at Colts
Houston is the more functional 0-2 team and should be able to win a low-scoring, one-score game in Indianapolis.

Jaguars -3 vs. Patriots
Jacksonville at home is a small favorite for a reason and should be able to grind out a short-number cover against New England.

Low Plays — 0.5 units

Cardinals +7.5 at 49ers
San Francisco is the better team, but +7.5 is a lot of points if Arizona can keep this from turning into a blowout.

Giants -2.5 vs. Titans
New York is at home against 0-2 Tennessee and should still be good enough to cover even with Jameis Winston starting.

Chiefs -10 at Dolphins
Kansas City is 2-0, Miami is 0-2, and this is the one double-digit favorite on the board that actually looks like a mismatch